inCode predicts strong 2009 for prepaid

According to their predictions, smaller carriers, especially those with their own networks, could thrive in 2009. The bigger players, namely AT&T and Verizon (which will be the No.1 carrier in the nation come Friday), will have the size advantage, and the Crickets and Metros will serve the lower end of the market:

Smaller carriers such as Leap Wireless, Metro PCS, and U.S. Cellular post gains with a ruthless focus on specific segments.

This leaves Sprint and T-Mobile the most vulnerable. This is no surprise, since they’re stuck right in the middle, which is rarely a good place to be, especially in trying times. inCode also touches on the rate at which Americans are ditching their landlines in favor of a cell-only lifestyle — a topic we’ve covered on this blog on too many occasions to count. Specifically:

For the first half of 2008, U.S. government researchers said 18 percent of American households had cut the cord completely, and 31 percent reported getting all or nearly all their calls on wireless phones. Primary access line losses at AT&T and Verizon averaged 9 percent over the past year. Companies like Leap Wireless and Metro PCS, which focus on wireline replacement at the low end of the market, see their fortunes improve dramatically. With more mobile Internet options available from Clearwire (XOHM) and T-Mobile, fixed mobile substitution for data services encroaches on traditional broadband.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that any of this comes true. inCode has their own reasons for publishing this list. The logic checks out, at least at a fundamental level. This could be good news for the prepaid sector in 2009.]]>