MetroPCS, Cricket showing gains in economic downturn

T-Mobile adding more prepaid subscribers than postpaid in the third quarter. The latest involves MetroPCS and Leap Wireless. They’ve seen some significant stock gains in the past month or so, indicating investor confidence in the flat-rate, unlimited calling prepaid companies. The gains are 39 percent for Metro since November 21, and 80 percent for Leap in the same time period. This hasn’t brought the stocks into the black for the year — Metro is down 24 percent while Leap is down 44 percent — but it could be a good indicator for 2009. A couple of quotes on the trend:

“Investors are seeing the Leap-PCS model as more resilient in a recession, similar to what we have seen at Wal-Mart and McDonald’s,” said John Hodulik, a UBS analyst. “I also think cheaper gas means more money in people’s pockets in the segment of the market that both companies focus on.” … “With the weakening economy, the trend toward wireless substitution will accelerate,” said Kevin Roe, principal of Roe Equity Research. “The entire wireless industry has benefited for years from cutting the cord, but Leap and MetroPCS may be greater beneficiaries in a weakening economy. To some extent, a weakening economy is their friend.”

It will be interesting to see the fourth quarter numbers for these regional carriers compared to the big national carriers.]]>